Quick Hits

• Morgan Stanley capitulates on the dollar. "We were wrong," the bank concedes, after rising bond yields and Fed rate-hike expectations wrecked its forecast for the buck. Meanwhile, a former Dallas Fed chief argues the bond market is pricing in too many hikes. The 10-year Treasury sits near 5%.
• Costco beat, and nobody cheered. Tariff refunds drove a fiscal Q4 profit beat and membership renewal rates "moved in the right direction" — yet the stock was flat after hours as investors stayed cautious.
• Berkshire is buying the dip. Roughly $212 million of a beaten-down stock in just three days, lifting the stake 81% this quarter — even as Warren Buffett formally exits the chairman role.
• The S&P 500's newest tech addition is leading it. Data-storage name Everpure topped the index's gainers Thursday.
• Micron reports next week. UBS's Timothy Arcuri reiterated a $1,625 price target; a Rosenblatt analyst expects news on customer agreements, rising prices, and buybacks.

Markets Overview

The S&P 500 finished Sept. 22 at 7,764.64, up about 13% for 2026 and sitting roughly 34 points below its Aug. 13 record close of 7,798.99 — the index's 27th record of the year. The Dow is up 7% year-to-date through Sept. 24, but the gains are uneven: Nike (NKE) and McDonald's (MCD) are the worst Dow performers of 2026, and the Motley Fool makes the case that one of them is an October buy.

The day's most notable single-stock move came from Everpure, the index's newest tech addition, which led S&P 500 gainers Thursday as data storage stays in demand.

The macro mood is darker. Wall Street veteran Larry McDonald warns that bonds are starting to deliver "equity-like returns" — a dynamic he compares to the summer of 1987, arguing Black Monday's warning signal came from the bond market and "it's back." Goldman Sachs' global head of hedge fund coverage offers an escape hatch: with U.S. stocks facing a "clear and present" yield danger, Japan's AI-fueled market has quietly outperformed and may be the better place to look.

Earnings Reports

Costco (COST): A fiscal Q4 profit beat, helped by tariff refunds (MarketWatch). The key membership metric — renewal rates — moved in the right direction, though CNBC notes "the debate isn't totally settled" as it updated its price target. The Motley Fool reads the flat after-hours reaction as a testament to reliability, arguing Costco is a better buy than Walmart.

Micron (MU) — the big one next week: The memory maker reports fiscal Q4 before Sept. 30, and the setup is charged. Arcuri — whose May call sparked a breakout rally — reiterated his buy and $1,625 target. The Fool's coverage frames the core question: is the AI memory boom a durable business shift or a short-lived peak?

Meta (META): Two days of Connect-event hardware launches, including a refreshed AI glasses lineup — against a backdrop of more than $85 billion in cumulative losses on glasses and headsets.

Fed & Economic Data

Markets are bracing for what would be the first Fed rate hike in three years, ending an easing cycle that began in 2024 — but a former Dallas Fed chief says the bond market is being too aggressive in pricing hikes.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — sworn in May 22 as only the 17th chair in the Fed's history, vowing a reform-oriented central bank — is central to the debate. The Motley Fool argues you don't need forward guidance: five words from Warsh strongly signal what's next for rates.

Positioning for higher rates, the Fool flags financials (via XLF) as the sector ETF to own, while noting the near-5% 10-year yield is pressuring the math on dividend stocks — even as its analysts still back names like Procter & Gamble (PG). Mark your calendar: Social Security's 2027 COLA lands Oct. 14.

Hot Sectors

Chips and geopolitics: As the Trump-Xi meetings unfold, MarketWatch points to a "hidden AI trade" — easing tensions over Taiwan could ripple through the chip stocks powering the AI boom. The buildout keeps the connectivity-chip debate alive: Astera Labs (ALAB) vs. Marvell (MRVL).

AI infrastructure's long tail: Fuel-cell maker Bloom Energy (BE) disclosed a ~$20 billion backlog in February — about five times its raised 2026 revenue guidance — and the Fool examines how fast it can actually build.

Stock News

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B) bought $212 million of a beaten-down stock in three days, boosting its stake 81% this quarter. Greg Abel has held the CEO job since earlier this year; Buffett is now stepping down as chairman, handing that role to son Howard — and offering a "sobering" four-word farewell message to investors.
• Fervo Energy (FRVO) rose after announcing First Power at its flagship Cape Station geothermal project in Beaver County, Utah.
• Revolution Medicines (RVMD) won FDA breakthrough therapy designation for RASONQUE, its metastatic pancreatic cancer drug; the Fool weighs whether Royalty Pharma is the safer way to play it.
• Amazon (AMZN) blocked Muse, Meta's two-week-old AI shopping agent, from its site — while Shopify (SHOP) welcomed it and gets paid on every checkout.
• Nova (NVMI): CTO Shay Wolfing sold 3,864 shares for ~$1.4 million, per a Sept. 21 Form 4.
• Adobe (ADBE) trades near $241, off about 34% from its 52-week high — despite posting record revenue in every quarterly report this fiscal year.

Market Analysis

The through-line today is the 5% 10-year yield repricing everything it touches: a Wall Street bank's dollar model, the equity-vs-bond competition for capital, and the Fed's reaction function. The bull case rests on earnings — the Fool sketches math for the S&P 500 finishing 2027 above 9,000 — while bears cite McDonald's 1987-style bond signal.

What to watch: Micron's report next week as the definitive read on the AI memory cycle; Trump-Xi headlines for chip and Taiwan sensitivity; and whether rate-hike expectations unwind, as the former Dallas Fed chief expects, or validate Morgan Stanley's humbled dollar desk.