Quick Hits

• The Fed's next move is back on the table — fast. One week after Kevin Warsh delivered his first rate hike as chair (the first in three years) and scrapped forward-looking guidance, Motley Fool reports odds of an Oct. 28 hike are "soaring" — with President Trump "in part, to blame." Markets are pricing the Fed with less signposting than at any point in recent memory.
• Warsh's new inflation dashboard may not be an upgrade. Nomura economists say the chair's new inflation-tracking method shows no better predictive power than standard core readings (MarketWatch).
• Banks are the sore spot in the tape. MarketWatch details why financials are falling as rates rise — and why that's a problem for the broader market, not just the sector.
• A 145-year valuation alarm, with a twist. The CAPE ratio has topped 40 for only the second time in 145 years (Motley Fool) — even as S&P 500 profits track a third straight quarter of 25%-plus growth.
• Oil broke $100 a barrel amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) skyrocketed Tuesday on encouraging clinical trial results for its experimental weight-loss drug.

Markets Overview

The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,764.70 — within half a percent of its mid-August record of 7,798.99 — and sits up 13% year to date, with the Nasdaq Composite ahead 16% and the Dow 15% above its March low (Motley Fool). Nvidia (NVDA) remains the world's most valuable company at more than $5 trillion. SpaceX (SPCX), now publicly traded, carries an average Wall Street price target of $232 — roughly 50% upside — though Fool is openly debating whether the company can ever justify a $10 trillion valuation. Breadth has soft spots: one Fool columnist argues only four of the "Magnificent Seven" still deserve the title, and Cardano (ADA) is down for the year even as other cryptocurrencies recover. Meanwhile, MarketWatch profiles a quarterly-rebalanced ETF that is outpacing the broader index on the AI trade.

Earnings Reports

• General Mills (GIS) beat on both lines: adjusted EPS of $0.75 (a $0.03 beat) on revenue of $4.4B (a $50M beat), per Seeking Alpha.
• Manchester United (MANU) posted a non-GAAP loss of £0.1636 per share on £157.5M in revenue (Seeking Alpha).
• AGF Management reported non-GAAP EPS of C$0.49 on revenue of C$112.5M (Seeking Alpha).
• Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q4 after the bell Sept. 30; Fool flags "1 number" that could send the stock soaring after its run as an AI-boom darling.
• The big picture: S&P 500 profits are on track for a third consecutive quarter of 25%+ growth — and the index itself hasn't kept up, meaning this year's gains are earnings-driven rather than pure multiple expansion (Motley Fool).

Fed & Economic Data

• At the Sept. 16 FOMC, the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years — Warsh's signature move since taking the post in May, paired with the removal of forward guidance. Now Fool says Oct. 28 hike odds are climbing, with Trump's policies sharing the blame.
• Nomura's critique of Warsh's replacement inflation gauge: no better predictive power than core readings (MarketWatch).
• Rising rates are dragging financials lower, with slower loan growth and higher bank funding costs — a transmission channel MarketWatch says the broader market can't afford to ignore.
• Early projections put the 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.6%, which Fool notes isn't necessarily good news — it implies inflation remains sticky.

Hot Sectors

• Weight loss/GLP-1: Viking's clinical readout for its experimental obesity drug electrified the biopharma space Tuesday.
• Value rotation: With investors worried the AI trade is an overpriced bubble, Fool pitches the VFFA value ETF as the hedge.
• Energy: With oil surging past $100, analysts tell MarketWatch a U.S. diesel export ban could backfire — reducing supplies while pushing prices even higher.

Stock News

• Warren Buffett has stepped down after more than 60 years at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) — Fool marks the moment by reviving his most timely warning for investors: bear markets have always been part of the deal, and history shows he's never been wrong on that point.
• AT&T (T) is "the smartest bet in the wireless sector," per BNP, which sees "little to quibble with on the mobile side" (MarketWatch).
• SpaceX will use Nvidia chips exclusively going forward, Elon Musk announced — a major coup for the GPU maker (Motley Fool).
• Realty Income (O): own shares by Sept. 30 to qualify for the Oct. 15 dividend.
• Income screen: Coca-Cola (KO) has raised its dividend through every market crash since 1962, while Pfizer (PFE), Kraft, and UPS all yield more than 6% — Fool weighs which is safest.

Market Analysis

The day's central tension: a CAPE above 40 — historically rare, and per Fool a red signal flashed only once before in 145 years — set against an earnings-driven rally where profits are compounding faster than prices. Fool separately flags bond-market stress that, if history repeats, presages a big stock-market move. The political calendar looms large: midterms are six weeks out with the Iran war among the pivotal issues, and one Fool columnist argues the biggest trade if Democrats sweep back the House and Senate is shorting AI data centers. On the calendar: Micron's Sept. 30 earnings, Realty Income's dividend record date the same day, and the Oct. 28 FOMC — the first Warsh meeting where markets, lacking forward guidance, will genuinely be guessing.