Fed Hikes for the First Time in Three Years — and Two Words From Warsh Sink the Market
Wednesday's FOMC decision drove the tape, and indexes fell after Warsh's comments, per the Motley Fool. The stumble comes despite a strong year — the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have all notched several record highs in 2...
Quick Hits
- The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.0% on Wednesday, its first hike in three years. The vote was unanimous, but forward guidance split, with one more increase expected, per MarketWatch. The Motley Fool reports two words from Chair Kevin Warsh "sunk the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq" and "put Wall Street on notice."
- Nvidia (NVDA), the world's most valuable company at a $5.1 trillion market cap as of Sept. 15, has returned $46 billion to shareholders this year — and Fool sees another major dividend hike coming. One wrinkle: more than a quarter of revenue now comes from customers based in Taiwan.
- SpaceX (SPCX) is targeting its first orbital Starship flight for as soon as Sept. 22, and its CFO says a new compute deal moves the company closer to a $100 billion ARR goal.
- Anthropic is targeting an IPO valuation above $2 trillion — an attempt to top SpaceX's record June raise of $85.7 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. Fool's take: smart investors will wait.
- Global rate picture: the Bank of England held at 3.75%, eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in August, and 5% Treasury yields are inflating America's debt bill, per MarketWatch.
Markets Overview
Wednesday's FOMC decision drove the tape, and indexes fell after Warsh's comments, per the Motley Fool. The stumble comes despite a strong year — the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have all notched several record highs in 2026 even as AI-bubble fears, oil-driven inflation, and the Iran war weigh on sentiment. GE Vernova (GEV) was a notable outlier, bouncing nearly 5% on progress in a crucial project. A hedge-fund manager tells MarketWatch the market isn't winner-take-all and flags three underdogs. Netflix (NFLX) trades near $78, roughly 38% below its 52-week high of $124.86 — though Fool notes every past drawdown of 35%-plus has ended at a new high.
Fed & Economic Data
- The hike to 3.75%–4.0% was unanimous, but the committee split on what comes next; MarketWatch reports markets are bracing for one more increase.
- Fundstrat's Tom Lee put a characteristically bullish spin on the decision, arguing his predicted "face-ripping" rally is merely delayed.
- A Wall Street strategist cited by MarketWatch found energy and information technology stocks historically perform best one year after a first Fed hike — stocks can still advance.
- Don't expect the hike to tame the long end: MarketWatch notes history shows Fed hikes rarely stop rapid rises in longer-term yields. With Treasury yields near 5%, the fiscal math on America's debt bill gets uglier the longer they hold.
- BlackRock's Gargi Pal Chaudhuri opposed the hike and recommends staying invested in AI while broadening into quality and healthcare themes.
- Globally: the Bank of England held at 3.75%, and eurozone inflation ticked up to 3.2% in August, per Seeking Alpha.
- President Trump claims fuel prices will drop "quickly" once the U.S. wins the Iran war; Fool argues he's missing the bigger picture on oil-driven inflation. For Main Street, MarketWatch also weighs whether a $50,000 HELOC on a paid-off rental makes sense at the start of a hiking cycle.
Earnings Reports
- Ispire (ISPR) held its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call Wednesday morning.
- Forgent Power (FPS) extended its post-earnings ascent following its fiscal Q4 report and bullish analyst commentary.
Hot Sectors
- AI-power complex: Fool compares Vistra (VST), Constellation (CEG), and Talen Energy (TLN) as hyperscalers hunt reliable electricity for advanced chips. Leidos (LDOS) just closed a $2.4 billion grid-infrastructure acquisition — possibly a "quiet AI winner" as energy scarcity bites. GE Vernova's near-5% pop fits the theme.
- AI memory: Fool pits Micron (MU) against Sandisk (SNDK) in a "messy, albeit very profitable" memory squeeze as training runs balloon and inference moves into production — all against the backdrop of what Fool calls Nvidia's $279 billion warning.
- Energy income: Fool highlights two under-the-radar midstream dividend stocks where fee-based models mute commodity price volatility.
- Healthcare: BlackRock's Chaudhuri recommends broadening into the sector, while retail investors on r/investing debate whether a post-Covid wave of drug and treatment innovation is coming.
Stock News
- SpaceX (SPCX) — now a rocket-launch, satellite, and AI company — is targeting its 14th Starship test flight, the first to orbit, for as soon as Sept. 22, pending regulatory sign-off. Its CFO says a new compute deal advances the company toward a $100 billion ARR goal. The stock has been public since a record-smashing June IPO that raised $85.7 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation.
- Anthropic's targeted $2 trillion-plus IPO would top that record within months; Fool cautions smart investors to wait before buying. Separately, Fool highlights five AI stocks positioned to benefit from Anthropic's $517 billion in compute commitments — "follow its actions, not its rhetoric," especially after CEO Dario Amodei's essay urging frontier labs to slow development.
- Nvidia's (NVDA) Taiwan revenue concentration — over 25% of the total — raises geopolitical questions, per Fool, even as shareholder returns accelerate.
- Tesla (TSLA) is being pulled deeper into China's brutal price war as sales continue to plunge, but Fool argues the company will succeed anyway.
- AECOM (ACM) declared a $0.31 dividend, per Seeking Alpha.
- Greg Abel has now run Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) for most of a year since taking over from Warren Buffett in January; Fool reviews what's actually changed.
- With Polymarket showing a 53% chance of a Democratic sweep in November, Fool names one crypto to buy and one to sell.
Market Analysis
The big theme: the easing era is over. The first hike in three years landed with another increase expected, and the bond market's message is skeptical — history says rate hikes don't stop rising long yields, and 5% Treasuries make the government's interest bill materially more expensive. Divergence abroad (BoE on hold, eurozone inflation rising) complicates the global picture, while an Iran-driven oil impulse keeps the inflation debate alive. Watch for: the SpaceX Starship orbital launch as soon as Sept. 22, the Anthropic IPO pipeline, whether the post-hike energy/IT seasonality playbook repeats, and November's midterms — now a live market variable at 53% sweep odds on Polymarket.