Yields Jump From London to Tokyo as Warsh's Words Nearly Double September Rate-Hike Odds
Equities enter September priced near all-time highs — the S&P 500 hit a fresh record in August, capping a rally that began in early June (Motley Fool). But the tone is shifting. Strategists at Citadel Securities and J...
Quick Hits
- Hawkish shock from the Fed. Comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are "sending shockwaves through Wall Street," and the odds of a September rate hike have nearly doubled, per Motley Fool — a striking repricing with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all sitting near record highs.
- The bond selloff has gone global. Yields are jumping from the U.K. to Japan as U.S. bonds tumble (MarketWatch) — though some experts argue higher rates reflect a healthier economy, not dysfunction.
- Apple has a new CEO. John Ternus takes over at Apple (AAPL) as Tim Cook steps down but stays on in an expanded board role; MarketWatch sizes up the challenge of "leading when his old boss is still in the building."
- Dell (DELL) surged on AI-server demand, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup all raising price targets on well-received guidance.
- Not everyone survived earnings night: MongoDB (MDB) fell despite a beat-and-raise, and Palo Alto Networks' (PANW) AI-driven beat drew only a muted after-hours reaction.
Markets Overview
Equities enter September priced near all-time highs — the S&P 500 hit a fresh record in August, capping a rally that began in early June (Motley Fool). But the tone is shifting. Strategists at Citadel Securities and JPMorgan have both turned temporarily cautious, though neither says the bull market is over (MarketWatch). The bigger action was in rates: the Treasury tumble has gone contagious, with yields climbing from the U.K. to Japan — proof, MarketWatch notes, that when the U.S. catches a cold, global bonds sneeze. Not everyone is spooked: experts cited by MarketWatch argue the near-zero rates of the post-financial-crisis decade were "a sign of economic dysfunction," while today's higher yields reflect stronger demand for capital and a robust economy. One quirky tell: so-called negative-beta stocks — names that rise when the S&P falls — are "weirdly keeping up" with the broader market, which one strategist says offers a way to ride out volatility events.
Earnings Reports
- MongoDB (MDB): A beat-and-raise quarter, but shares tumbled as Atlas — its multi-cloud database — logged the same revenue growth for the fifth consecutive quarter (MarketWatch). Fool adds the database specialist is tangled in a popular narrative that AI will disrupt its business.
- Dell (DELL): Jumped as AI-server demand drove guidance that Wall Street cheered; Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Citi all raised targets, and Seeking Alpha notes analysts see more AI upside ahead.
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Beat quarterly estimates on AI-driven cybersecurity demand and continued its acquisition spree (CNBC). The stock has nearly doubled in 2026; CNBC Pro analysts lifted their price target and argued the muted extended-trading reaction is not reflective of the results.
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI): Non-GAAP EPS of $1.42 beat by $0.30 on revenue of $741.3M (a $6.38M miss); full-year guidance raised.
- G-III Apparel (GIII): EPS of $0.26 beat by $0.03 on revenue of $554.1M (missed by $16.27M); full-year guidance raised.
- Sprinklr (CXM): EPS of $0.11 beat by $0.01; revenue of $213.7M missed by $0.74M.
- Tonight's main event: Broadcom (AVGO) reports fiscal Q3 after the close, arriving with trailing-12-month revenue up 32% and profit growing nearly four times as fast as sales (Motley Fool).
Fed & Economic Data
- Warsh's remarks are the macro story of the day: Motley Fool flags the chair's "three words" rocking Wall Street, with September rate-hike odds nearly doubling as a result — even as equity indices hover at highs.
- The consumer picture is bifurcated: St. Louis Fed data show credit card delinquencies running at 6.4% at small banks versus 2.9% across all banks (Motley Fool), signaling stress concentrated at smaller lenders.
- Valuation watch: the Shiller CAPE ratio marks the S&P 500 as historically expensive, though one Fool columnist says he's still investing through it.
Hot Sectors
- Energy: ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and SLB climbed as U.S.–Iran strikes pushed Brent crude above $90 (Motley Fool). The power squeeze has a longer tail, too: gas turbine prices are on track to nearly triple as natural gas demand for electricity rebounds after fossil fuels were written off, and Fool highlights the stocks cashing in.
- Cybersecurity is riding the AI wave — PANW has nearly doubled this year on demand for AI-boosted security tools (CNBC).
- Income is back in style: a "soft rotation" is quietly moving capital from tech and AI names into dividend ETFs (Motley Fool), and Dividend King Altria (MO) just declared its 61st dividend increase in 57 years.
Stock News
- Apple (AAPL): Ternus's first big challenge is leading while Cook remains in the building in an expanded board role (MarketWatch).
- Tesla (TSLA): Has ended the Solar Roof, halting orders on Aug. 20 per Electrek — the company stopped reporting solar numbers 10 quarters ago, and now the product is gone, too (Motley Fool).
- CoreWeave (CRWV): Trading around $82, down about 47% from its 52-week high, with quarterly interest expense of $640 million — 2.4 times the year-ago level (Motley Fool). The AI "neocloud" still gained 18% in August.
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B): Sold three bank stocks while keeping large stakes including Bank of America — a shift Fool says investors should notice.
- IPO lane: SpaceX (SPCX) debuted in June at a nearly $1.8 trillion market cap after raising over $85 billion; with Anthropic's listing still ahead, Fool weighs which of 2026's twin mega-IPOs is the better own.
- The Trade Desk (TTD): Lost 24% in August after another disappointing quarterly report.
- Palantir (PLTR): After gains topping 2,600% across 2023–2025, Fool runs a one-year price prediction implying "a big move."
- Crypto corner: Privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) hit an 8-year high; a Fool columnist is bullish on rising demand for financial privacy and the coin's supply policy.
Market Analysis
September opens with an unusual setup: record-high equities, a global bond selloff, and a Fed chair whose rhetoric has markets pricing a hike rather than a cut. Watch tonight's Broadcom print for the state of the AI trade — and CoreWeave's ballooning interest expense is a useful reminder that the boom is partly debt-financed. Bill Gates added to the backdrop this week, warning AI will cause "many jobs to disappear forever" (Motley Fool). Seasonality adds another caution flag: September is historically the market's worst month, valuations are stretched on CAPE, and strategists at Citadel Securities and JPMorgan are explicitly bracing for turbulence. For positioning, MarketWatch points to defensive preparation — and the strong run in negative-beta stocks suggests some investors are already doing exactly that.