Markets Overview

Markets continued to confound traditional inflation playbooks on day 75 of the Middle East conflict. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has advanced 8% year-to-date and trades near record highs, soaring nearly 17% since late March alone. Meanwhile, Bitcoin retested the $80,000 level for the first time since January, and 10-year Treasury yields hovering around 5% are showing signs they won't stick around—offering a silver lining for equity bulls despite persistent macro headwinds.

Earnings Reports

Earnings season highlights included a notable mid-cycle earnings acceleration, the largest on record, which has forced traders to re-evaluate the market's recent surge. Aveanna Healthcare beat Q1 estimates and raised its full-year guidance, while Regenxbio (RGNX) missed badly with a GAAP EPS of -$1.72 and revenue of $6.39M, missing top-line estimates by nearly $19M. AI infrastructure play Nebius Group (NBIS) popped after boosting its AI-fueled growth forecast, and DataDog (DDOG) impressed investors by crossing the $1 billion revenue mark.

Fed & Economic Data

Tomorrow, May 15, marks a seismic shift on Wall Street as Jerome Powell steps down and Kevin Warsh is expected to begin his tenure as Fed Chair. Warsh intends to alter the Fed's inflation framework—a move that could roil a historically pricey stock market—especially in the wake of a hot jobs report and sticky 3.8% inflation. Billionaire Ken Griffin recently warned that rate hikes could be back on the table, a sentiment echoing through a market that remains fiercely resilient despite Federal Reserve alarms.

Hot Sectors

Artificial intelligence continues to be the market's primary engine, but selectivity is key. While Apple (AAPL) hits new all-time highs with a $4.4 trillion market cap and Nvidia (NVDA) lobbies successfully for Chinese export breakthroughs, profit-taking is hitting other areas. CoreWeave (CRWV) tumbled more than 10% early this month, highlighting frothy valuations in the space. Looking past chips, computing power is evolving into a literal asset class, with CME Group planning to launch futures that let investors bet directly on the price of AI computing power.

Stock News

The biggest story on the horizon is the SpaceX IPO, set to be the largest in history this summer, aiming to raise $75 billion at a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation. In other corporate moves, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) resumed its massive stock buybacks after a lengthy pause, signaling strong internal valuation confidence. Geopolitics also moved individual names: Boeing (BA) rallied on hopes of a massive new China aircraft order, and the broader energy and commodities complex is eyeing a potential "vibe shift" after Vladimir Putin addressed Volodymyr Zelensky as "mister" for the first time, suggesting a thaw in peace negotiations.

Market Analysis

Investors are navigating a precarious divergence: macroeconomic warnings are clashing with an AI-led earnings boom. With inflation running hot and Kevin Warsh taking the reins at the Fed tomorrow, market participants should brace for potential volatility regarding future rate expectations. Watch closely for how the new administration's tariff policies and the upcoming SpaceX IPO mega-listing impact liquidity and sector rotation in the weeks ahead.