Powell Breaks Precedent, Goldman Delays Rate Cut Forecast as Chips Surge and Oil Anxiety Lingers
A return to AI data-center optimism drove a big day for semiconductor stocks, with AMD (AMD) and Micron (MU) surging as investors rotated back into chip names. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have both soared earlier...
Markets Overview
A return to AI data-center optimism drove a big day for semiconductor stocks, with AMD (AMD) and Micron (MU) surging as investors rotated back into chip names. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have both soared earlier this month, though geopolitical uncertainty — particularly around the Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices — continues to inject volatility. Lumentum (LITE), whose stock performance ranks sixth in the S&P 500 this year, is set to join the Nasdaq-100, underscoring the strength in optical and AI infrastructure plays.
Amazon (AMZN) is up 19.7% year to date, making it the best-performing "Magnificent Seven" name alongside Alphabet (GOOGL). Microsoft (MSFT) management delivered upbeat commentary that cheered shareholders, while Alphabet's cloud segment continues to thrive.
Earnings Reports
AMD (AMD) posted a blowout Q1 with revenue up 38% to $10.3 billion and adjusted EPS jumping 43% to $1.37, fueled by what management called a $120 billion server CPU opportunity. The stock is soaring on renewed long-term optimism.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) surged 34% in its best day ever after beating revenue estimates and announcing a record-setting launch deal, riding a wave of enthusiasm ahead of SpaceX's anticipated IPO.
CoreWeave (CRWV) tumbled more than 11% the day after reporting Q1 results despite another quarter of massive revenue growth and a swelling backlog — investors appear spooked by the neocloud company's heavy capital expenditures and path to profitability.
SoundHound AI (SOUN) dropped sharply after Q1 revenue merely met expectations, suggesting the market is demanding beats, not just meets, from high-multiple AI names.
Energy and utilities crushed estimates this week: 8 of 9 S&P 500 energy stocks beat EPS, and 12 of 14 utility stocks delivered earnings wins, reflecting strong fundamentals across defensive sectors.
Koppers (KOP) guided 2026 EPS to $3.80–$4.60 while announcing plans to exit its Stickney distillation operations by year-end.
Fed & Economic Data
Fed Chair Jerome Powell broke 75 years of precedent by announcing plans to remain on the Board of Governors after his term as chair expires May 15, rather than stepping down entirely. The move is widely seen as a check on President Trump's influence over monetary policy and could shape the Fed's direction well beyond the leadership transition.
Goldman Sachs pushed back its forecast for Fed rate cuts, citing persistent inflation pressures. With soaring oil prices adding to the inflationary backdrop — the Strait of Hormuz disruption has kept energy markets on edge — the case for near-term easing continues to erode. Trump may ultimately force the Fed's hand, but not in the dovish direction he's been demanding.
Hot Sectors
Semiconductors led the tape as a dramatic rotation back into AI data-center names lifted AMD, Micron, and optical networking plays. The memory shortage is intensifying — Samsung, the world's largest memory chipmaker, can't expand production fast enough to meet big tech's insatiable demand, pushing prices higher.
The helium crunch is emerging as an underappreciated supply-chain risk for chip manufacturing. Qatar provides roughly a third of global helium supply, and Iranian drone strikes on Feb. 28 disrupted flows, potentially accelerating the reshoring of AI chip fabrication to the U.S.
Energy stocks remain in the spotlight with Chevron (CVX) up 20% year to date amid Iran-related supply fears and rising crude. The company has returned over $5 billion to shareholders for 16 consecutive quarters.
Crypto is struggling — Solana (SOL) has shed 48% in six months as the meme coin frenzy faded and soaring oil prices weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Stock News
Inspire Brands — parent of Dunkin' and Arby's — has confidentially filed for an IPO, marking Dunkin's return to public markets with a new multi-brand twist. Details on pricing and timing remain under wraps.
Palantir (PLTR) continues to generate buzz on strong revenue and profit growth, cementing its position as a go-to government and enterprise AI platform play.
Upstart (UPST) is crashing after disappointing quarterly results, raising questions about whether the AI-lending platform can sustain growth in a higher-for-longer rate environment.
Archer Aviation (ACHR), down 23%, is drawing attention from growth investors eyeing its $4.8 billion market cap and plans to disrupt urban air mobility — though execution risk remains significant.
Market Analysis
Three themes are defining this market. First, the Powell succession drama — his decision to stay on the board creates an unprecedented dynamic where the outgoing chair could serve as a counterweight to whoever Trump appoints, adding a layer of policy uncertainty. Second, the AI trade is broadening beyond Nvidia into server CPUs (AMD), memory (Micron, Samsung), optical networking (Lumentum), and cloud infrastructure — but valuations demand flawless execution, as CoreWeave and SoundHound just learned. Third, energy-driven inflation remains the wild card; any resolution on the Strait of Hormuz could simultaneously ease oil prices and open the door for rate cuts, while escalation would do the opposite.
Watch next week for more clarity on Powell's successor, any developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the tail end of earnings season — where energy and utility beats suggest the real economy is holding up better than sentiment would suggest.