Markets Overview

Oil prices whipsawed Thursday, initially surging to a four-year high above $120 after reports that President Trump is considering further military action in Iran, before reversing sharply lower in early trading. The volatile session underscores how geopolitical risk remains the dominant macro variable heading into May.

Veeva Systems saw its stock soar after being named the newest addition to the S&P 500, a reminder that index inclusion still moves the needle for mid-cap names. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs traders are flagging that retail investors are "trading the mania" in semiconductor stocks with high-stakes options bets that could get messy if momentum fades.

Earnings Reports

Apple (AAPL) delivered its best March quarter in company history, reporting 17% revenue growth that topped estimates on booming iPhone and Mac demand. Shares jumped 4% after hours, with investors also digesting news of an upcoming CEO change and AI update.

Amazon (AMZN) beat expectations across the board, with cloud computing revenue expanding 28% year over year. Jim Cramer called it one of the strongest quarters he's seen, projecting another 15% upside from here.

Alphabet (GOOGL) posted booming cloud revenue and raised its full-year capex guidance to as much as $190 billion, with expectations to "significantly increase" spending further in 2027 — a staggering commitment to AI infrastructure.

Microsoft (MSFT) delivered a promising quarter but couldn't shake investor concerns about its core software business, with shares oscillating between modest gains and losses in after-hours trading.

Reddit (RDDT) reported a 69% jump in first-quarter revenue, comfortably topping analyst estimates on both top and bottom lines.

Qualcomm (QCOM) surged 16% after CEO Cristiano Amon said the company would begin shipping data center chips to "a large hyperscaler" ahead of schedule and called a bottom in China sales.

Carvana (CVNA) popped on record Q1 results, with retail sales of 187,393 units representing a 40% increase year over year.

Chipotle (CMG) posted surprise same-store sales growth in an early sign the chain could be breaking its slump — notable given shares have plummeted 35% over the past year.

Western Digital slid despite beating earnings estimates, as investors panned results following a massive one-year stock rally. The memory trade appears to be faltering.

Perella Weinberg Partners missed on both lines — non-GAAP EPS of $0.05 missed by $0.12, while revenue of $149M came in $17.32M below consensus.

Fed & Economic Data

Morgan Stanley shifted its call on Federal Reserve rate cuts following the FOMC meeting, citing core inflation that remains too sticky for the Fed to ease. The firm expects inflation to stay elevated until events in the Middle East stabilize — a notable hawkish pivot from one of Wall Street's major houses.

Gas prices jumped 21% in March, a development that could push the 2027 Social Security COLA as high as 3.2% if current inflation trends hold. The 2026 COLA of 2.8% is already struggling to keep pace with retirees' actual spending, highlighting the gap between CPI and real-world costs for older Americans.

Mortgage rates dipped below 6% earlier this year for the first time in years, though the window may be narrowing as inflation proves persistent.

Hot Sectors

Semiconductors remain the hottest — and most dangerous — trade in the market. Goldman Sachs warns that retail investors have shifted from "buy the dip" to chasing momentum with leveraged bets that will be difficult to unwind. Intel (INTC) continues to ride hype, with one analyst noting "every little bit of possible good news is driving shares higher."

The hyperscaler capex arms race is accelerating, with Alphabet's $190 billion commitment joining Microsoft and Amazon's massive AI infrastructure buildouts. This is a direct tailwind for chip names but raises questions about eventual returns on investment.

Stock News

Blue Owl Capital shares surged after the private credit firm disclosed 10x gains on its SpaceX investment, which is headed for a record IPO later this year.

Veeva Systems is joining the S&P 500, sending shares sharply higher as index funds prepare to add the cloud software name to their holdings.

Nexstar Media declared a $1.86 dividend, maintaining its shareholder return program.

Market Analysis

The narrative heading into May is bifurcated: mega-cap tech is delivering extraordinary growth (Apple's best quarter ever, Amazon's cloud acceleration, Alphabet's capex explosion), but the macro backdrop is deteriorating with oil above $120, sticky inflation keeping the Fed sidelined, and geopolitical risk escalating in the Middle East.

What to watch: The tension between blockbuster tech earnings and a Fed that can't cut is the central puzzle. If oil stays elevated and inflation reaccelerates, even the AI trade may not be enough to keep the bull running. Morgan Stanley's hawkish pivot suggests the "rate cuts are coming" consensus is fracturing. Keep an eye on how chip stocks digest their gains — Goldman's warning about crowded retail positioning deserves attention.