Markets Overview

Oil dominated the tape today. Brent crude futures topped $111 a barrel after reports that President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the conflict, leaving the endpoint of hostilities deeply uncertain. Goldman Sachs upgraded its WTI forecast to $83/bbl by Q4 2026, warning prices could finish the year at $100 if flows don't normalize soon.

Despite the geopolitical overhang, Morgan Stanley struck a bullish tone, arguing that pullbacks will be shallow as earnings momentum, capex, and AI adoption reduce opportunities to buy dips on geopolitical weakness. Evercore ISI noted the market's sprint from oversold to overbought mirrors the setup last seen in 1982 — a playbook that would project the S&P 500 to 10,675.

U.S. tech stocks came under pressure alongside a sharp selloff in SoftBank Group shares — down for the worst single-day drop in six months — after a report that OpenAI missed several internal targets amid rising competition. Barclays, however, flagged 21 stocks to keep powering the tech rally higher and urged investors to stay long the sector.

Earnings Reports

General Motors (GM) was the standout, raising its full-year 2026 guidance after a $500 million tariff refund boosted results past Wall Street expectations. Investors continue monitoring the interplay of the Iran conflict, tariffs, and EV write-downs on future quarters.

S&P Global (SPGI) delivered a clean beat — non-GAAP EPS of $4.97 topped estimates by $0.15 on revenue of $4.17 billion, $100 million above consensus.

Verizon (VZ) shares rose after posting surprise subscriber growth under its new CEO. EPS beat expectations, though revenue came up slightly short.

UPS (UPS) beat on quarterly earnings but shares fell after the company left its full-year outlook unchanged despite the revenue beat — a disappointment for bulls hoping for a raise.

LGI Homes (LGIH) beat on the bottom line (non-GAAP EPS of $0.24 vs. estimates of -$0.13) but missed on revenue at $319.7 million, $3.2 million light. Asbury Automotive (ABG) missed on both lines — EPS of $5.37 missed by $0.25 and revenue of $4.1 billion fell short by $270 million. Stepan (SCL) beat on EPS by $0.06 but missed revenue by $7.7 million.

Hot Sectors

Energy is back in the driver's seat. With Brent above $110 and no resolution to the Iran conflict in sight, energy dividend stocks are drawing attention as investors get paid to wait out elevated crude prices. Oil has climbed sharply since the conflict escalated in late February after months of trading in the $50–$70 range.

AI infrastructure remains a key battleground. CoreWeave (CRWV) continues to attract interest ahead of its May 7 catalyst, while Rambus (RMBS) is being flagged as a potential game-changer in AI memory and data-center architecture. The OpenAI stumble, however, injected fresh doubt into the AI trade — SoftBank's plunge underscored how exposed some names are to execution risk at the frontier.

Poet Technologies (POET) cratered 47.4% in a brutal session, though the specific catalyst beyond broader tech-hardware weakness remained thin.

Stock News

Meta's (META) $2 billion acquisition of an autonomous AI company was blocked by China, marking a notable setback in the escalating tech decoupling between Washington and Beijing.

Bill Ackman is going retail — Pershing Square is planning dual public offerings, including a new closed-end fund IPO that will give away shares to any investor who buys five or more. It's an unusual play to broaden his investor base beyond institutions.

SpaceX is gearing up for what could be a record-shattering IPO after filing confidentially in early April, reportedly targeting a valuation as high as $2 trillion.

United Airlines' CEO publicly pitched a merger with American Airlines (AAL), a deal that would dramatically reshape the domestic carrier landscape and almost certainly draw intense antitrust scrutiny.

Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) reports Wednesday. The turnaround story has gained credibility, and the print will be closely watched for validation of the company's strategic pivot.

Market Analysis

The tug-of-war between strong earnings and geopolitical risk defined today's session. GM's tariff refund and S&P Global's beat reinforce the case that corporate fundamentals remain solid, but $111 oil and a stalling Iran peace process are a tax on sentiment and consumer spending alike.

Key watch items this week: Mega-cap tech earnings continue to roll in, with Teva on Wednesday as a bellwether for pharma turnarounds. Oil supply dynamics and any diplomatic developments on Iran will set the macro tone. The OpenAI miss adds a new wrinkle — if the AI narrative cracks further, the SoftBanks and CoreWeaves of the world are most exposed. Morgan Stanley says buy the dips; the oil market says the dips may come from somewhere unexpected.