Daily Finance Digest — March 25, 2026

Markets Overview

Stock futures climbed Tuesday evening after reports that the U.S., via Pakistan as intermediary, sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the Middle East conflict. The proposed cease-fire hammered oil prices and lifted risk appetite across equities, with investors rotating back into beaten-down cyclicals and growth names.

The geopolitical pivot dominated the session's tone, but underneath the headlines a more structural debate is brewing. Citrini Research — known for an early, high-conviction AI call — is now betting the market has the Fed wrong, recommending buying March 2027 rate futures while shorting U.S. equities. Meanwhile, a Deutsche Bank analyst warned that a world becoming "self-sufficient in defense and energy could also be a world that holds less dollar reserves," raising longer-term questions about petrodollar dynamics as the Iran situation evolves.

Google (GOOGL) dropped 3% on the day and was trending heavily across social media, with investors debating whether the dip is a buying opportunity at $292. Goodyear (GT) surged as much as 6.2% as the oil price correction led investors to price in better earnings margins. Advance Auto Parts (AAP) rose 7.4% on the same falling-fuel tailwind. Intuitive Machines (LUNR) bounced back after losing nearly 6% last Friday on a wide Q4 loss.

Earnings Reports

Chewy (CHWY) reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.27, missing consensus by $0.01, with revenue of $3.26B coming in roughly in-line. Not a disaster, but the slight miss fits a broader pattern investors are flagging — stocks have been consistently selling off post-earnings even on neutral-to-positive results, suggesting the bar for upside surprises is unusually high right now.

Alibaba (BABA) missed revenue expectations in its latest quarter, though the tech giant is leaning aggressively into AI spending. The pressure on AI-heavy names to show actual returns on their infrastructure bets is intensifying, and Alibaba's miss underscores that revenue growth hasn't kept pace with investment commitments.

Maze Therapeutics posted GAAP EPS of -$0.65, beating estimates by $0.07. Kiora Pharmaceuticals reported GAAP EPS of -$2.64 with no upside surprise.

Fed & Economic Data

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI Index exceeded expectations in March, a notable bright spot suggesting the industrial economy is holding up better than the headline tariff-and-war anxiety would imply. The read complicates the rate-cut narrative — stronger manufacturing activity gives the Fed less reason to ease.

Across the Pacific, Japan reported lower-than-expected core inflation for February, with headline CPI easing for a fourth consecutive month. The softening trend may give the Bank of Japan room to delay further tightening, which has implications for yen carry trades and global liquidity flows.

On the oil-inflation nexus, analysts note that while crude prices are repricing lower on cease-fire hopes, refinery stress and capacity constraints mean the pass-through to consumer prices may be slower than the headline drop suggests. Asian floating oil inventories have plunged from 102 million barrels three weeks ago to just 42 million barrels — a draw that most headline-focused traders appear to be ignoring.

Hot Sectors

Energy & Oil: The day's dominant story. Crude prices fell sharply on the Iran cease-fire proposal, dragging energy names lower but lifting consumers of fuel — airlines, trucking, and auto parts retailers all benefited. However, the Asian inventory drawdown and persistent refinery bottlenecks suggest the supply picture is tighter than spot prices indicate.

EVs: Rivian (RIVN), down 91% from its 2021 IPO highs, is drawing fresh bull cases around its improving cost structure and VW partnership. Lucid (LCID), down 98% from peak, is being floated as a deep-value play though execution risk remains enormous. The broader EV sector continues to attract speculative interest even as profitability remains elusive for most names outside Tesla (TSLA).

Defense: The rearmament cycle thesis is alive and well. Despite dovish cease-fire headlines, roughly 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne are preparing to deploy to the Middle East — a disconnect between diplomatic signaling and on-the-ground military posture that defense investors are watching closely. Kratos and Rocket Lab (RKLB) are being highlighted as under-the-radar plays on expanding defense backlogs.

Mining & Critical Minerals: Gold prices have pulled back from highs above $5,500/oz but remain elevated. SSR Mining is being called undervalued at current levels. Rare earth stocks like MP Materials (MP) and USA Rare Earth are in focus as U.S.-China trade tensions keep critical mineral supply chains in the spotlight — China still controls 70% of extraction and over 90% of processing.

AI & Software: Seven software names, led by Microsoft (MSFT), are being positioned as resilient plays amid AI uncertainty. The "Kimi Week" event from Chinese AI lab Moonshot is drawing comparisons to DeepSeek's market-shaking R1 launch in January 2025, signaling that Chinese AI competition remains a live risk for U.S. tech valuations.

Stock News

MrBeast's Step Banking App is drawing Congressional scrutiny. Sen. Elizabeth Warren raised concerns about the YouTuber's teen-focused banking app and its ties to Evolve Bank & Trust, a bank with a troubled regulatory history. The intersection of influencer finance and banking regulation is an emerging theme worth watching.

Steel manufacturers are getting a second look as hyperscalers commit $600-700B in 2026 capex, mostly for data center buildouts. Every data center requires massive steel infrastructure before a single GPU is installed, creating a downstream demand story that most AI investors aren't pricing in.

Distribution Solutions Group (DSGR) is in play after a take-private proposal from its majority owner — a situation activist-minded investors are flagging as potentially mispriced.

Market Analysis

The big tension: Diplomatic headlines point toward de-escalation in the Middle East, but military deployments tell a different story. Markets are trading the optimistic scenario, but the gap between cease-fire proposals and boots-on-the-ground reality creates asymmetric risk if talks collapse.

Watch this week: The post-earnings sell-off pattern across multiple names suggests institutional investors are using beats as exit liquidity. If this continues, it could cap upside even as macro data improves. The Citrini call — long rates, short equities — is a contrarian positioning that deserves attention given the firm's track record.

The inflation puzzle isn't solved. Japan's cooling CPI and falling oil prices suggest disinflationary forces are building globally, but refinery constraints, tight Asian inventories, and sticky services inflation in the U.S. mean the "last mile" to target remains bumpy. The Fed's next move is far from obvious, and that uncertainty is itself the trade.