Daily Finance Digest — March 13, 2026

Markets Overview

The Iran conflict tightened its grip on global markets Thursday as Brent crude futures climbed above $100 a barrel on continued disruption to Strait of Hormuz traffic. Iran's new supreme leader broke his silence and called for the strait — through which 20% of global oil flows — to stay closed, sending shockwaves through energy and equity markets alike. President Trump is scrambling to contain prices, but analysts say efforts like shipping waivers and stockpile releases are "like putting a Band-Aid on a shotgun wound." The U.S. Energy Secretary openly admitted the country is "not ready" to escort tankers through the strait, leaving markets pricing in further supply disruption. Recession fears are mounting as investors contend with surging energy costs, sticky inflation, and a Fed caught between political pressure and economic reality.

Earnings Reports

Adobe (ADBE) posted a Q1 earnings beat but shares fell after the company announced its longtime CEO is stepping down. More critically, the lack of acceleration on a key metric signaled that AI isn't yet driving the significant financial benefits Wall Street had been banking on.

Petco (WOOF) surged Thursday after reporting strong profit gains and issuing an upbeat forecast for the year ahead, with net sales coming in ahead of expectations. A rare bright spot in an otherwise gloomy session.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) slid after hours after guiding below Street estimates on both profit and same-store sales, citing headwinds from global conflicts on consumer spending. Management said it is "increasingly mindful" of the effects geopolitical turmoil is having on shoppers.

ServiceTitan (TTAN) reported Q4 2026 results, while Once Upon a Farm slid after delivering its first post-IPO earnings report. Douglas Elliman posted an adjusted EPS loss of -$0.17 on revenue of $245.4M.

Fed & Economic Data

Trump publicly demanded Fed Chair Jerome Powell cut interest rates Thursday even as oil prices surged past $100, but the bond market isn't buying it — investors are betting the Iran conflict makes cuts less likely, not more. The tension between the White House and the Fed is intensifying as war-driven inflation pressures collide with political demands for easier policy.

CPI data this week drew attention, with at least one trader on WallStreetBets reporting a pre-print puts play on silver (SLV) anticipating "bad" inflation numbers. Gas prices are surging on the Iran situation, hitting Americans already struggling with affordability. Analysts warn that U.S. stockpile releases and shipping waivers will not ease pain at the pump. G7 nations agreed to release oil from strategic reserves, but markets greeted the seemingly positive news negatively — a classic warning signal that sellers are in control.

Hot Sectors

Energy is the undisputed leader as $100 oil reshapes portfolio positioning. One WallStreetBets trader deployed $750K into SM Energy (SM), calling it an undervalued U.S. oil producer. Shipping and tanker names like Imperial Petroleum (IMPP) are drawing renewed interest as Hormuz disruptions threaten global trade routes.

Hardware & Defense may define the next decade, with one analysis arguing that if 2010–2025 was the era of software, the next 15 years will be dominated by advanced technological hardware — driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain reshoring.

Autos are under pressure. Honda flagged its first annual loss, hit by a staggering $15.7 billion EV-related charge. Meanwhile, BYD's Shenzhen-listed shares jumped 8.4% after teasing a "disruptive technology" event, even as the company reported a 41% sales decline.

Stock News

SoftBank-backed PayPay is reportedly planning a U.S. IPO at $16 per share, a notable cross-border listing to watch. Bamco expanded its FactSet (FDS) stake to $838 million as the financial data platform continues driving recurring revenue. Fastly (FSLY) saw its President of Go to Market dump $1.6 million in shares via open-market sales. Land & Buildings disclosed a new 1.3 million-share position in National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA), while Miller Value Partners exited its entire Buckle (BKE) stake, selling 72,000 shares for $4.2 million.

Market Analysis

The Hormuz playbook. Citi's global macro strategy team went searching for historical analogs and landed on the 1980s conflict as the best market parallel for the current Iran situation — a period marked by prolonged energy disruption and stagflationary pressure. Investors should study that era carefully.

The signal beneath the noise. When good news (G7 strategic reserve releases) gets sold, it tells you the market's internal psychology has shifted bearish. The combination of $100 oil, a Fed under political siege, and a consumer already stretched thin creates a trifecta that historically precedes meaningful drawdowns.

What to watch. Keep eyes on Strait of Hormuz developments — any escalation could send crude well beyond $100. The Fed's next move is increasingly boxed in: cut rates and risk fueling energy-driven inflation, or hold firm and face political heat while the economy slows. Friday brings potential positioning ahead of the weekend risk premium, and options markets suggest traders are paying up for downside protection.